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Deal Contingent Hedging

FX Proxy hedging using Baysian regression chart

The New Way

Traditional use of contingent forwards and options are inconvenient and expensive. Using machine learning, we have been able to identify baskets of currencies with higher and more robust correlations to the target currency.


If deals are either completed or fall through, a basket of currencies can hold their value against the buyer's currency and seller's currency. So no matter the outcome, the risk to deal valuation remains low.

What is deal-contingent hedging?

Deal contingent hedging is utilized during the closing periods of acquisitions and investments in order to reduce the effect of FX risk whilst final due diligence is completed. In some cases, final due diligence can be completed in a few weeks.


In much larger and more complicated transactions, due diligence can go on for many months, if not years. No matter the time frame, in a cross-border transaction, spot rates quite often change substantially. This can imperil the deal, as the mutual valuation between the buyer and seller in their own home currencies will diverge.

No Derivatives Needed

Using derivatives often requires setting up and negotiating ISDAs or new credit relationships with a counter-party. Utilizing multiple spot transactions to create a basket requires neither.


Combining this with extremely low execution costs has made it a sought after solution for contingent hedging.

Basket of currencies for FX hedging pie chart
FX volatility chart for FX Proxy hedging

Reduce FX Volatility

Basis risk is spread over multiple currencies rather than being concentrated on one.


Using a basket of up to four currencies to hold value during the due diligence period of a cross border transaction, represents an excellent alternative to expensive vanilla option premiums.

Want To Learn More About Deal Contingent Risk?

Our Cross-border Content is designed to answer questions you may have about the world of cross-border transactions. If you have further questions that aren't covered by our articles, feel free to contact our team.

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