Foreign Exchange Hedging
Deciding between multiple FX option strategies (e.g. single option, collars, par forwards, condors etc.) is very difficult. Often, banks will provide a simplistic description, with a graphic illustrating the payoff at different terminal spot values. However, the key issue - the likelihood of each outcome (and the resulting expected value) is not represented in any meaningful way.
We believe that understanding the distribution of outcomes is key to evaluating the true efficacy of a foreign exchange hedging strategy.
FX Market Simulations
Simulation types include geometric Brownian motion, stochastic volatility and jump-diffusion models. The market models may include skew (client predilection of market trends), and kurtosis (ie fat tails), to model upcoming impactful events.
Our Monte Carlo simulation engine can simultaneously model multiple strategies including forwards, vanilla, exotic options and the likelihood of a margin call.
Graphical displays of the outcome distributions for each Hedging strategy make it easy to intuitively grasp the relative performance of multiple strategies and effectively communicate the findings to investors.
Hedging Multiple Simultaneous Exposures
For entities with multiple currency exposures in their portfolio, it can be difficult to balance all of the factors and determine the optimal hedging strategy. Each exposure will have different volatility, the cost to hedge, and of course size.
Our program uses constrained optimization to identify the efficiency frontier, which consists of total hedge cost/portfolio VaR pairs. The efficiency frontier represents the lowest portfolio VaR for a given total cost, or conversely, the lowest total cost for a given portfolio VaR.
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