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  • Writer's pictureMatheus Zani

BRL Monthly Outlook: October 2021

Updated: Oct 5, 2021

This month's key takeaways for the Brazilian Real:

• The elevated Selic is trying to offset the out-of-control inflation, however, this hawkish stance is a double-edged sword.

• Brazil’s Central Bank intervening to ensure the smooth functioning of the market, is an attempt to curb the volatility mid-term.

• Fiscal uncertainties and political noise add downside risks to growth through next year.

• Implied Volatility for 1 month is around 16%.

• Plans to expand social programs ahead of next year’s elections will continue to weigh on the BRL.

• USDBRL forward points skyrocketing.

• DXY is moving up to its highest level in a year, after the FED turned in another hawkish display.

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