BRL Monthly Outlook: October 2021
- Matheus Zani
- Oct 4, 2021
- 1 min read
Updated: Oct 5, 2021
This month's key takeaways for the Brazilian Real:
• The elevated Selic is trying to offset the out-of-control inflation, however, this hawkish stance is a double-edged sword.
• Brazil’s Central Bank intervening to ensure the smooth functioning of the market, is an attempt to curb the volatility mid-term.
• Fiscal uncertainties and political noise add downside risks to growth through next year.
• Implied Volatility for 1 month is around 16%.
• Plans to expand social programs ahead of next year’s elections will continue to weigh on the BRL.
• USDBRL forward points skyrocketing.
• DXY is moving up to its highest level in a year, after the FED turned in another hawkish display.
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Great insights — appreciate how this outlook highlights that while Brazil's elevated Selic rate aims to combat inflation, it also introduces tension in FX markets. The analysis of central bank interventions, fiscal uncertainty, and political noise all effectively frame the risks to BRL. Clear, timely, and impactful—thanks for the read! Luiz Antonio Duarte Ferreira
I really enjoyed this BRL Monthly Outlook for October 2021 on Deaglo. The insights on Brazil’s economic trajectory and exchange rate projections were well-researched and clearly explained. I appreciated the balanced analysis of fiscal policy, inflation trends, and external risks. The charts helped clarify complex data, and the writing style was both professional and engaging. Looking forward to future reports! Daniel Dantas
Excellent breakdown! The report’s clarity in explaining the elevated Selic rate’s dual impact, central bank interventions, and the mounting political and fiscal uncertainties really brings the BRL story to life. Insightful take on implied volatility, DXY trends, and forward points—all woven together with precision. Learned a lot—thank you! Luiz Gustavo Mori